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Stumbling Giant: The Threats to China's Future


Mr. Timothy Beardson


Professor Zhigang Tao, Associate Dean, Knowledge Exchange and China Development and
Director of HKU Institute for China and Global Development

Date :

31 October 2013 (Thursday)

Time :

7:15 - 9:00 pm

Venue :

Special Collection, 1/F, Main Library, The University of Hong Kong

Language :





About the Speaker and the book

Mr Timothy Beardson

Timothy Beardson founded and ran Crosby Financial Holdings, at the time the largest independent investment bank in the Far East.

Since the late 1990s he has been a frequent speaker on economic and strategic issues at such events as the World Economic Forum at Davos and at prominent universities. He is a permanent resident of Hong Kong.





Mr Timothy Beardson

While dozens of recent books and articles have predicted the near-certainty of China’s rise to global supremacy, this book distinctively counters such widely-held assumptions. Timothy Beardson brings to light the daunting array of challenges that today confront China, as well as the inadequacy of the responses. He presents bold policy prescriptions addressing these challenges and explains why – without substantial reform – China is unlikely to replace America as the next

Drawing on extensive research and experience living and working in Asia over the last thirty-five years, the author spells out China’s situation: an inexorable demographic future of a shrinking labour force, relentless ageing, extreme gender
disparity, and even a falling population. Also, the nation faces social instability, a devastated environment, a predominantly low-tech economy with inadequate innovation, the absence of an effective welfare safety net, an ossified governance
structure, and radical Islam lurking at the borders. Beardson’s nuanced, first-hand look at China acknowledges its historic achievements while tempering predictions of its imminent hegemony with a no-nonsense dose of reality.